Georgetown Americas Institute

The election of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) to the presidency of Mexico in 2018 significantly changed the country’s political landscape. His personalistic leadership and broad popularity has made him one of the most electorally successful leaders since Mexico’s democratization over two decades ago. However, the country’s constitution bars him from running for reelection, opening the door for new leadership to emerge in next year’s presidential race. To discuss the current state of the contest, GAI hosted Jorge Castañeda Gutman, former foreign minister of Mexico from 2000 to 2003.

Two Leading Candidates

Castañeda believes that the race will come down to two candidates: Claudia Sheinbaum and Xóchitl Gálvez. Sheinbaum, the former mayor of Mexico City, is the leading contender and chosen successor of President López Obrador. Castañeda believes that she will benefit both from AMLO’s inherent popularity and from the advantages that come from being in power. On the other hand, Gálvez, a leading opposition senator, is the unity candidate. She faces an upward battle but is widely popular given her humble background and lack of strong direct ties to unpopular party structures that stand behind her.

The third candidate will come from another small opposition party of Movimiento Ciudadano, but Castañeda argues that it will be limited to single digit support. The key here is that their candidate may take votes away from the two leading contenders, likely more from Gálvez. 

What Happens After the Election?

Much could happen between now and the June 2024 elections. The key from Castañeda’s perspective will not only be the campaign and the road to the election in June, but also what happens after the results are in. The centrality of AMLO will likely define both moving forward.

“What happens if Xóchitl Gálvez wins by a narrow margin? Will López Obrador accept the results? This is an open question right now. Then, what happens if Claudia Sheinbaum wins? Will he just go home and let her lead on her own?” -Jorge Castañeda.

In an eventual Sheinbaum administration, Castañeda sees AMLO’s shadow looming large. His popularity and the loyalty of his base will condition her to acquiesce to his policy preferences. Gálvez on the other hand is betting on polarizing the election. Her presidential bid was born from her personal grievances with AMLO’s style, and Castañeda speculates that she was very strategic in blindsiding the president with her unexpected bid for the presidency.

The next government’s challenge will then be to both grow seriously and to be very inclusive. One of the proposed ideas in this regard could be a universal social safety net which Mexico currently lacks. The challenge will be that the country also needs a profound fiscal reform.” -Jorge Castañeda.

Moving forward, the next administration will have to handle AMLO’s legacy as the country continues to recover from the economic damage of the pandemic. His unwillingness or inability to reform the country’s outdated fiscal structure has stood in contrast with his expansion of social spending. In this context, the key will be to pass a substantive reform as soon as possible, given that AMLO failed to use his broad popularity to make any progress in this field.

The event was moderated by Josep Colomer of the BMW Center for German and European Studies. A full recording of the event is available on the GAI YouTube channel.