Georgetown Americas Institute

Dresser wrote her latest book in a two-month period, fueled by a growing concern about Mexico’s democratic backsliding. In her own words, Mexican democracy is not dying, but it is at risk. The Georgetown Americas Institute (GAI) hosted Dresser for a February 22 conversation with GAI Founding Director Alejandro Werner about her latest book and the ways the upcoming 2024 presidential election in Mexico could either reinforce or reduce that risk.

The State of Mexican Politics

Dresser’s analysis is rooted in both academia and activism. Her book includes personal accounts of her grassroots activities, including her yearly participation in protests commemorating the 1968 Tlatelolco Massacre, where more than 300 students were assassinated by the Mexican army. She highlighted how this event carries significant weight in contemporary Mexico, given the country’s ongoing militarization under Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s (AMLO) administration.

She shared that she was verbally and physically assaulted by AMLO’s supporters during her most recent participation in the commemorative protests. In her view, the tragic irony of the incident symbolized the state of Mexican politics: an activist with a long track record in social justice was attacked by government supporters during a public act commemorating victims of state violence. 

Dresser acknowledged that the current government has earned public legitimacy by attempting to expand social rights, catering to the destitute, and capitalizing on unhappiness with Mexico’s deeply unequal society. However, she argued that the country's democratic transition at the institutional level has not impacted Mexicans’ everyday lives. Overall, she agreed with AMLO’s diagnosis of Mexico’s problems: the country faces a rentier system constrained by oligarchic political elites, which has led to ample frustration across the broader population. 

AMLO’s Role in Democratic Backsliding

Dresser contended that Mexico checks all the boxes of a country undergoing democratic backsliding; a democratically elected leader, with the legitimacy of the popular vote, abuses and weakens democratic institutions, concentrates power, and changes the rules of the electoral game to hold on to power.

“Mexico tends to elude the classification of democratic erosion, but the country checks all the boxes.” - Denise Dresser

Democratic backsliding is a global trend, and Dresser asserted that AMLO has facilitated this process in Mexico by pushing a “people versus oligarchy” narrative, advocating for reforms that have been deemed unconstitutional by the Supreme Court, actively clashing with institutions like Mexico’s National Election Commission, and relying on his morning presidential address as an instrument of governance. In this conference, he has created “imaginary enemies,” including Dresser herself. 

Lopez Obrador has mentioned Dresser by name more than 100 times in his morning presidential address, prompting her to take legal action on grounds of harassment and defamation. The ensuing litigation represents an uphill battle that many believe to be pointless, but she hopes it will set a precedent on what the government can and cannot do to its critics. 

The Threat of Ongoing Militarization

Dresser believes that a defining characteristic of AMLO’s undemocratic government is his reliance on the armed forces. While campaigning, AMLO promised to roll back his predecessor's militarization of the country only to backtrack on this commitment once in office. Dresser argued that a deep distrust of Mexican bureaucracy prompted AMLO to solidify his relationship with the military, seeking to keep them on his side in the event of a challenge to his rule. 

Moreover, the military became a preferred vehicle for AMLO to quickly materialize some of his policy objectives. The military, which AMLO refers to as “el pueblo uniformado” (the people in uniform), became an extension of the president, who presents himself as the “direct representative of the people.” Since the military is not subjected to national transparency laws, using it has enabled AMLO to circumvent civilian oversight and avoid accountability. 

Dresser pointed out how the military has been put in charge of highway maintenance, airports, immigration and border control, and acquisition of businesses, among others, all leading to a dismantling of civilian bureaucratic institutions.  

What Comes after the Election

As someone who was part of Mexico’s democratic transition between the 80s and 2000s, Dresser regrets not dedicating enough efforts to teaching people about the importance of democracy, why it matters, and why democracy does not simply mean rule by the will of the majority. 

“Many of the mistakes made by the transition governments paved the way for someone like AMLO to win power.” - Denise Dresser 

When asked about leading candidate Claudia Sheinbaum, Dresser offered a critical evaluation of her administration of Mexico City, highlighting Sheinbaum’s mismanagement of the COVID-19 pandemic, her administration’s use of force against mass mobilizations including the 2020 pro-abortion march, and her decision to reclassify cases of forced disappearances as homicides. 

Dresser does not believe that as president Sheinbaum would be “puppeteered” behind the scenes by AMLO, but she was skeptical of Sheinbaum’s capacity to “change course while ensuring continuity.” According to Dresser,  whoever wins the election will find their hands tied by the Mexican military, due to the ample power and influence AMLO has transferred to them throughout his tenure as president.